anyone planning a restaurant around a trend should read this.
I watched the burger rush in Dubai, then the food trucks. specialty coffee, craft beer, gin bars. then bubble tea in Japan, and maritozzo … more places opening around whatever was drawing a crowd.
someone else's queue can make opening feel safer.
people are already buying. there is less to explain to an investor.
waiting starts to feel like losing sales.
the queue is visible …
the other operators getting ready to open are harder to see,
yet that queue is reassuring them too.
then we put our own spin on it …
a new topping, a different flavor, a nicer cup …
it gives us a reason to believe we will do better.
but would anyone walk past another shop for it?
if the difference means little to them, being on the way home or next to the office can matter more.
the spin can make us stop asking.
we feel we have dealt with the competition while still counting on the same crowd.
that can be enough to sign for five years.
a busy shop alone is not enough reason to sign a lease.
we can choose to trade on a trend with our eyes open.
that means asking how long those sales need to last for us to earn our money back.
and what will bring people in after the excitement passes.
a shop busy for eight months has shown us eight months of trade.
it has not shown us how long that demand will last.
why does that short record make us feel we should hurry, rather than check more carefully?
You answered your own question in the middle of it. The queue is visible and the other operators getting ready to open are not. Appetite is the only thing on display, so appetite becomes the whole analysis, and the supply forming around that same crowd stays invisible until it opens on top of you. Everyone in that cohort is reading the same reassuring line and none of them are in each other's numbers.
The hurry comes from something that is actually correct. Some part of the operator knows the window is closing. That instinct is right. The conclusion drawn from it is backwards — a closing window is the reason not to sign five years against it, not the reason to move faster.
And your eight-month line is the one I'd hand to anybody about to sign. A busy shop proves appetite exists. It proves nothing about duration, and duration is the only variable the lease cares about. The question is not whether people are buying. It is how many periods of this you need to earn the money back, and what brings them in on the period after the excitement leaves.
The spin is the part that does the most damage, because it feels like work. A new topping or a nicer cup lets you tell yourself you have handled the competition while you are still counting on the identical crowd. If a Guest would not walk past a closer shop for it, it is not differentiation. It is a reason to stop asking.
I 100% agree.
anyone planning a restaurant around a trend should read this.
I watched the burger rush in Dubai, then the food trucks. specialty coffee, craft beer, gin bars. then bubble tea in Japan, and maritozzo … more places opening around whatever was drawing a crowd.
someone else's queue can make opening feel safer.
people are already buying. there is less to explain to an investor.
waiting starts to feel like losing sales.
the queue is visible …
the other operators getting ready to open are harder to see,
yet that queue is reassuring them too.
then we put our own spin on it …
a new topping, a different flavor, a nicer cup …
it gives us a reason to believe we will do better.
but would anyone walk past another shop for it?
if the difference means little to them, being on the way home or next to the office can matter more.
the spin can make us stop asking.
we feel we have dealt with the competition while still counting on the same crowd.
that can be enough to sign for five years.
a busy shop alone is not enough reason to sign a lease.
we can choose to trade on a trend with our eyes open.
that means asking how long those sales need to last for us to earn our money back.
and what will bring people in after the excitement passes.
a shop busy for eight months has shown us eight months of trade.
it has not shown us how long that demand will last.
why does that short record make us feel we should hurry, rather than check more carefully?
You answered your own question in the middle of it. The queue is visible and the other operators getting ready to open are not. Appetite is the only thing on display, so appetite becomes the whole analysis, and the supply forming around that same crowd stays invisible until it opens on top of you. Everyone in that cohort is reading the same reassuring line and none of them are in each other's numbers.
The hurry comes from something that is actually correct. Some part of the operator knows the window is closing. That instinct is right. The conclusion drawn from it is backwards — a closing window is the reason not to sign five years against it, not the reason to move faster.
And your eight-month line is the one I'd hand to anybody about to sign. A busy shop proves appetite exists. It proves nothing about duration, and duration is the only variable the lease cares about. The question is not whether people are buying. It is how many periods of this you need to earn the money back, and what brings them in on the period after the excitement leaves.
The spin is the part that does the most damage, because it feels like work. A new topping or a nicer cup lets you tell yourself you have handled the competition while you are still counting on the identical crowd. If a Guest would not walk past a closer shop for it, it is not differentiation. It is a reason to stop asking.